Is it going to arrive in Spain? first heat wave of the year this week? It is difficult to know if the sharp rise in temperatures that is coming in the coming days will be able to have this category from a technical point of view, but, in any case, it will be an exceptional heat for the dates of May in which we find ourselves. AEMET forecasts point to 40ºC will be exceeded in several locations. And that, without having arrived yet the summer.
This same Tuesday More than 35ºC will already be registered in cities of Andalusia, such as Córdoba, but also in points of Catalonia, such as Lleida. However, the heat will be the norm throughout the country, with values that will be between 5º and 10ºC above what is normal on these dates. Temperatures will also exceed 30ºC in the eastern Cantabrian, and this despite the fact that rains are expected in Galicia and some showers in the Pyrenees.
The Wednesday 18 The Iberian Peninsula will be totally affected by the anticyclonic ridge, so the intense heat will last. In Córdoba, 38ºC are expected and in Zaragoza, 37ºC. No less remarkable will be the 35ºC that are expected in Bilbao and in points of Navarra. These are temperatures that are above normal for these dates, and even in the Pyrenees, the Ebro valley and depressions in the northeast and inland, they could even be 15ºC above normal.
will be the Thursday 19 when this rise in temperatures will reach even higher levels, and records of 40ºC are expected, the first time this year that we will see such increases. This will happen especially in points of the Guadalquivir valley. But, in addition, the minimums will also begin to rise, which until now have remained more or less stable, without ruling out a tropical night in various parts of Andalusia, Extremadura and the Ebro valley, as pointed out by the specialized portal Meteored, which does not rules out some heat records these days.
However, the most extreme heat would occur on friday 20, with temperatures of more than 40ºC already in the morning in the southern half of the Peninsula. In the interior and in the west the temperatures would be nothing less than between 10 and 15ºC above normal at this time of May. It is possible that in parts of Andalusia the night temperatures do not drop below 22 or 24ºC.
Although the margin of uncertainty for the saturday 21 it is still big, it is not ruled out, according to the forecast, that the thermometers continue to rise for that day, and there are even experts who predict 44ºC in the Guadalquivir valley and in Extremadura.
In view of this situation Are we facing a heat wave? The AEMET defines this phenomenon as “an episode of at least three consecutive days in which, at least, 10% of the stations considered register maximums above the 95% percentile of their series of daily maximum temperatures for the months of July and August of the period 1971-2000”.
Given that we are in May, the requirement for the months of July and August means that, technically, its application is ruled out at this time of the year, which does not prevent the fact that, if this condition were modified to cover more months, it could already be discussed of a heat wave.
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